Assumptions
Can we really know? Don't trust your mind...

You start a match with an opponent you are meeting for the first time. You exchange a few shots, and then he comes to the net. You go for a passing shot, low and fast down the line, trying to hit a winner. Since it's a risky shot, you miss.

Now imagine that you are my student. Here is the dialogue between you and me:

Me: Why did you try that shot?
S: Well, because my opponent came to the net.

Me: And?
S: If I don't pass him, he will finish the point with a volley.

Me: How do you know?
S: I don't know for sure, but it’s very likely.

Me: Are you sure? Have you seen him hit that volley?
S: No… (finally realizing the problem).

The student went for the risky passing shot instead of a higher-percentage shot at the opponent (or his feet). Why? Because he was ASSUMING something. And that something was the WORST-case scenario.

Next example:

A new player comes to practice, one who has never played against my student. They warm up and play points. On one point this new player stretches my student wide with a good, short, crosscourt shot. My student plays a risky hard-hit forehand back crosscourt and misses in the net.

Here is the dialogue again:

Me: Why did you play that type of forehand?
S: Because if I played a slow ball my opponent would hit a winner down the line, since I was out of the court.

Me: Have you seen at least one down-the-line shot from your opponent?
S: No.

Me: So you were assuming that he can play the winner down the line from your solid deep shot crosscourt?
S: Yes.

Me: But you have never seen him hit that shot?
S: No, never.

Again, the player is assuming the worst-case scenario and choosing the riskiest option. The result? He beats himself through unforced errors playing against an imaginary opponent.

When I talked to one of the experienced players (and I share his view), he said that he always thinks the BEST-case scenario for himself.

He believes that his opponent will MISS the down-the-line shot. He believes that his opponent isn’t very good at the net.

And he plays his percentage tennis UNTIL he is proven wrong. Only when high percentage shots aren’t good enough does he increase the risk of his shots or tactics.

This is good advice to follow.

Do you likewise play against imaginary opponents who will punish every short ball with a clean winner?

Test and look for proof. Play a risky game only if you see that proof in reality (and not just in your mind). Otherwise, you might just beat yourself without any help from your opponent.

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